|Research Area||Earth Sciences|
|Principal Investigator(s)||Prof. Heikki Järvinen|
The Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) will simulate the global climate over the best documented period of Earth’s climate, i.e., from the year 1000 B.P. to present, and a further period of two hundred years into the future. The computational code consists of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model including the land and ocean biogeochemistry, allowing simulation of the global carbon cycle. The model configuration closely follows the one used in the Millennium experiment (www.mpimet.mpg.de/en → science → Millennium experiment) of the COSMOS network (cosmos.enes.org). Here, the special emphasis is on the soil organic carbon for which a new and more realistic modelling treatment is included.
The main objectives of the simulation are (1) to comprehensively assess the realism of the models used for climate projections in the light of past climate variability and (2) to evaluate the low-frequency ecosystem feedbacks, especially as regards the soil organic carbon. A small ensemble of simulations (an ensemble of 4-6 members) is proposed in order (i) to assess the stability of the model over an extended period of time, and (ii) to obtain some uncertainty estimates of the simulated variability in the carbon fluxes between different carbon pools.
The proposed DEISA experiment, MillCli, is far beyond the computational resources of FMI but it would greatly advance our understanding of using very demanding Earth system models in computational climate research, and improve our readiness in simulating the Earth’s climate beyond the 100 - 200 year time window from present. FMI will be mainly responsible for the experiment itself but the model development and the analysis of the scientific results is shared with the University of Helsinki and the Finnish Environmental Institute.